In a remarkable turn of events, Syrian rebels succeeded in compelling Bashar al-Assad to abandon the country within a mere 11 days, significantly altering the strategic landscape of the Middle East.
For nearly 14 years, the Syrian leader successfully resisted an uprising many observers thought had lost momentum. However, his decline came after a series of tumultuous events on the battlefield for other Iranian allies.
Since September, Israel has significantly weakened the Hezbollah leadership in Lebanon, while the elimination of Hamas leaders has delivered substantial setbacks to Tehran, a crucial ally of Assad.
Andreas Krieg, a security specialist at King’s College London, stated that Iran and other “Axis of Resistance” members must now focus on their own territories.
“Consequently, the axis is set to diminish its transnational character and regional strategic significance.”
The rapid advance of the rebels, led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), in capturing Aleppo and, subsequently, the nation has left the global community in shock.
The rapid fall of Damascus caught both supporters and opponents of Assad off guard, leaving many in Syria and beyond surprised by the swift turn of events. The ongoing conflict in Gaza, marked by hostilities between Israel and Hamas, has drawn significant attention, particularly in light of Israel’s military actions against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The 59-year-old Syrian leader appeared to be firmly entrenched in power, bolstered by the support of his Iranian, Russian, and Hezbollah allies.
Several Arab neighbours have initiated efforts to normalise relations, which have been strained since the onset of the civil war following the suppression of anti-government protests in 2011.
However, HTS, which had its roots in Al-Qaeda before breaking away, shattered that perspective in a matter of days as cities succumbed and statues of Assad’s notorious father, Hafez al-Assad, were brought down.
Allies who are weaker
The Hamas assault on Israel on October 7, 2023, has entangled Iran and its “Axis of Resistance” partners in a conflict that reveals their vulnerabilities.
Reports indicate that Hezbollah‘s military capabilities have been significantly weakened, and there are claims that its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has been killed in an operation conducted by Israel.
Israel has been actively targeting Hezbollah’s military and financial supply routes originating from Iran and passing through Syria.
The support now encounters a renewed challenge from the new authorities in Damascus, who are likely to highlight Hezbollah’s significant contribution to maintaining Assad’s grip on power for an extended period.
Supporters of Iran in Yemen and Iraq continue to challenge the United States and its allies in the region. However, their actions seem more of a nuisance than a catalyst for significant change.
As Russia continues to engage in a costly conflict with Ukraine, it confronts critical decisions regarding its strategic interests, particularly with its most extensive naval base located in Tartus along Syria’s Mediterranean coastline.
“Krieg expressed concern, stating they are likely to lose that.” “The future of Russian presence in the region appears uncertain, particularly in light of their extensive support for the Assad regime and the implications of the new socio-political order.”
According to Krieg, Turkey stands to gain significantly as a significant regional benefactor from the potential downfall of Assad.
However, he noted that while it holds influence, it does not exert control over the rebels.
The end of the game
The Middle East faces multiple fronts of conflict while simultaneously navigating the complexities introduced by the new administration of Donald Trump in the United States.
“In a time marked by profound uncertainty, this transformative event renders the future exceedingly unpredictable,” stated Aron Lund, an expert at the Century International think tank.
The potential collapse of Assad’s regime raises critical questions about the future. What will emerge in its stead? The duration required for crystallisation is a subject of inquiry. “It is quite feasible to witness a range of regional contests unfolding in Syria,” Lund remarked to AFP.
Since 2011, numerous countries in the region have been supporting various anti-Assad factions in Syria.
The United Arab Emirates, along with other Gulf states, has recently resumed diplomatic relations with Assad, marking a significant shift after more than a decade of his isolation.
Numerous states have expressed concerns regarding Sunni Islamist organisations, including the Muslim Brotherhood. Lund stated that they would encounter even more significant challenges from the newly established rulers in Damascus.
“He described it as the Muslim Brotherhood on steroids, characterising it as significantly more militant and hostile towards them.”
As the political landscape evolves, both allies and adversaries of Israel anticipate a potential realignment of frontlines with the prospect of Trump resuming his position in the White House in January.
Countries ranging from Morocco to Saudi Arabia and Israel are poised to seek Trump’s support, leveraging his well-known reputation for deal-making diplomacy.
In previous statements, he expressed that the United States should refrain from involvement in the conflict in Syria. However, Trump will need to navigate a transformed Middle East landscape.
Krieg emphasised that the situation in Syria serves as a cautionary tale for leaders in Libya, Egypt, and Tunisia, all of whom experienced uprisings during the Arab Spring.
“The notion of ‘authoritarian stability’ has reached its conclusion,” he stated. “The counter-revolutionaries in Russia, the UAE, and Iran face a decisive end.”
