Leeds United and Burnley have officially secured their positions in the Premier League, achieving this milestone with two matches remaining in the season.
Despite the possibility of finishing the season with a remarkable 100 points, both teams are already facing predictions of relegation for the upcoming season.
The Clarets are poised for a swift return to form, contrasting sharply with the Whites, who spent two years working towards their resurgence in the top flight.
The managers of both clubs share comparable records in English football management. Each has achieved three promotions from the Championship, yet neither has managed to secure a season in the Premier League.
The question remains: how will they perform upon their return to the top flight? Recent seasons have demonstrated that they face significant challenges ahead.
Burnley concluded their most recent campaign in the Premier League while under Vincent Kompany’s management. The club navigated its path to promotion with a style of play that captivated fans and showcased an appealing brand of football.
However, they persisted in attempting to play in that manner in the Premier League, and it ultimately proved unsuccessful. Kompan’s appointment as Bayern Munich manager at the season’s conclusion proved successful, contrasting sharply with the fate of the Clarets, who faced relegation.
This promotional campaign has taken a markedly different approach.
The team’s performance has been anchored by a robust defense, which has allowed just 15 goals in 44 league matches to date. The team is enjoying an impressive streak, having gone 31 games without losing in the league, setting a new club record.
Scott Parker, the manager, has a track record of securing promotion with both Fulham and Bournemouth. He has achieved three promotions in three seasons within the Championship.
During his two and a half years at Fulham, the club experienced relegation from the Premier League on two occasions, with a promotion occurring between those descents.
During his inaugural season at Bournemouth, he successfully led the team to promotion. However, his tenure was cut short just weeks into the subsequent season following a staggering 9-0 defeat to Liverpool.
Michael Duff, a former defender for the Clarets, shared his insights with BBC Radio 5 Live, stating, “There are going to be tough times next season [for Parker].” He has demonstrated his capabilities as a competent manager, and it is unlikely that he will deteriorate in performance throughout three or four games.
Joe Hart, the former England goalkeeper who represented Burnley between 2018 and 2020, stated, “There is no way he is going to come away from that [defensive strategy] next season, absolutely no way, especially after what he has seen in the last two seasons from newly promoted sides.”
Is it possible for Farke to be measured against Bielsa?
Daniel Farke has achieved a feat only Marcelo Bielsa has accomplished with Leeds since 1990: securing promotion to the top flight.
Under the guidance of the German manager, Norwich was promoted to the Championship on two occasions. However, the team faced immediate relegation after their first ascent, and the manager was dismissed in November during the second season in the Premier League.
The team had accumulated more points this season than during its 2019-20 Championship title-winning campaign under Bielsa when it secured 93 points despite falling short in last season’s play-off final.
However, in the eyes of Leeds fans, no manager will ever match the legendary Argentine Bielsa, who was dismissed just 18 months into his tenure in the Premier League.
Former Leeds striker Jermaine Beckford remarked, “With players like Archie Grey, Georginio Rutter, and Crysencio Summerville – three pivotal figures who departed last summer following the disappointment of missing out on the play-offs – who could have predicted such a dramatic shift in fortunes?” When evaluated individually, the incoming players may not match the caliber of those who departed the team. However, what they did contribute was a sense of unity and team spirit.
“Our goal tally has increased, while our defensive record has improved, resulting in higher total points than the Bielsa era.” The impressive statistics often go unnoticed, primarily because Daniel Farke does not share the same high-profile status as Marcelo Bielsa.
What is the typical performance of promoted teams in their first season?
Leeds and Burnley are determined to defy the recent pattern of newly promoted teams facing immediate relegation.
Throughout the Premier League’s history, from its inception in the 1992-93 season to the conclusion of the 2022-23 campaign, there has been a notable occurrence where all the newly promoted teams faced relegation in their first season back in the top flight.
However, this marks the second consecutive season it is poised to occur.
In the previous season, the teams that faced relegation were Sheffield United, Luton, and Burnley. This season, Leicester and Southampton find themselves in the relegation zone, with Ipswich poised to follow suit soon. Furthermore, unless there is a significant change in the coming weeks, these two teams will be on track to record the lowest points totals ever for relegated sides.
Historically, it was more frequent for newly promoted teams to avoid relegation, a feat achieved on four occasions.
Hart believes that supporters must accept that their teams will need to focus on securing results to maintain their position in the Premier League. Recent seasons have demonstrated the remarkable quality of this league, highlighting the necessity for teams to maintain impeccable standards. Those pairing to play at this level must know that any misstep can significantly affect the pitch.
The profit and sustainability rules (PSR) pose a significant challenge for promoted clubs. They penalize those that report losses exceeding £105 million over a three-year period.
Burnley’s chief finance officer, Sasha Ryazantsev, spoke to BBC Sport about the implications of the club’s promotion to the Premier League. He notes, “A promotion to the Premier League has the obvious positive impact of the higher broadcasting and commercial revenues, yet Burnley will have one of the lowest revenues.” In the Premier League, player wages emerge as the most significant performance indicator on the pitch. In 2024, the average salaries of the three promoted clubs stood at a striking five times lower than those of the top three clubs and were also half of the average wages of the seven clubs ranked just below them.
The growing resource disparity has made it increasingly challenging for newly promoted teams to maintain their status in the league. Clubs are now compelled to devise strategies that allow them to outmaneuver their rivals, as simply outspending them is no longer a feasible approach.
