During the election night proceedings, Donald Trump reiterated, “Promises made, promises kept.”
With Republicans now in control of Congress, the feasibility of fulfilling his “promises” appears significantly enhanced.
In Washington politics, “governing trifecta” refers to a scenario in which the president’s party holds sway over both chambers of Congress: the House of Representatives and the Senate.
The Republican Party, under Donald Trump’s leadership, now wields significant control.
Once a prevalent feature in political landscapes, single-party control has increasingly become a rarity, with its occurrences now often brief and fleeting in recent decades. Historically, the party in power tends to experience a loss of seats during midterm congressional elections two years after a presidential election.
During their initial two years in office, Trump and Joe Biden experienced trifectas, yet this level of control did not ensure that either president could achieve their objectives.
During his initial two years in office, Trump enacted a prominent tax reform legislation that lowered corporate tax rates from 35% to 21% and implemented reductions in certain individual taxes.
However, faced with resistance from certain party members regarding his unexpected rise to power in 2016, he encountered challenges in pursuing his other objectives.
The effort to repeal the Affordable Care Act, commonly called Obamacare, came to a halt when Senator John McCain, a party member, declined to cast his vote in favour of the measure. The administration should have delivered what was needed on its promise to pass an infrastructure bill.
During his initial two years in office, with the Democrats holding sway in both the House and the Senate, President Biden achieved significant legislative victories, including the passage of the American Rescue Plan, the Investment and Jobs Act, and the Chips and Science Act. However, he was compelled to substantially reduce his spending and investment proposals, previously promoted as the Build Back Better package, following resistance from a senator within his party.
The path to complete dominance for either party is significantly hindered by the requirement that Senate bills must secure a three-fifths majority, or 60 votes, to overcome the filibuster. This procedural tactic allows senators to prolong discussions, effectively stalling legislative progress. When a party holds a simple majority in the Senate, it must engage with the opposing side to successfully pass legislation.
Despite securing a healthy majority in the Senate, Trump will still need more than 60 seats to counter opposition efforts aimed at stalling legislation effectively.
On Wednesday, Senate Republicans chose John Thune as their majority leader, defeating Florida’s Rick Scott, favoured by the Trump faction. This decision indicates a potential shift among some lawmakers towards reasserting their independence, especially considering that Trump did not officially endorse Scott.
However, a trifecta could pave the way for significant legislative initiatives if managed wisely.
The potential power advantage held by Trump may play a crucial role in advancing his ambitious agenda, which includes the largest deportation of migrants in history, significant tariffs on imports, and the reduction of environmental protections.
Implementing legislation to achieve these objectives significantly complicates efforts to overturn such plans in the judicial system. This starkly contrasts Donald Trump’s challenges during his first term, where his frequent reliance on executive orders was met with numerous and often successful legal challenges.
The judicial landscape has shifted in a manner that benefits Trump.
During his first term, a notable accomplishment was the appointment of three conservative justices to the Supreme Court, establishing a two-thirds majority that could endure for decades.
The appointment of over four dozen judges to the federal appeals courts has resulted in a significant shift, with several circuits now leaning more conservatively.
The Republican majority in the Senate offers a significant strategic benefit.
Trump is poised to navigate the approval process for his nominees to administration posts with greater ease, a stark contrast to the challenges he faced in 2017 when he encountered considerable internal resistance within the Republican Party.
The outlook suggests a hectic and potentially tumultuous couple of years ahead. However, recent history suggests that these trifectas tend to be short-lived. The new administration is poised to take swift action.
