Envision yourself in the role of Vladimir Putin.
The West has labeled you a pariah following your invasion of Ukraine. Sanctions are designed to isolate your country’s economy from international markets.
An arrest warrant has been issued for you by the International Criminal Court.
What methods can be employed to demonstrate that the pressure is ineffective? Consider organizing a summit.
This week, Kazan will host President Putin as he welcomes over 20 heads of state for the BRICS summit, a significant gathering of emerging economies. The list of invited leaders includes Xi Jinping of China, Narendra Modi, the Prime Minister of India, and Masoud Pezeshkian, the President of Iran.
The Kremlin has described it as one of the most significant foreign policy events in Russia’s history.
Chris Weafer, founding partner of consultancy firm Macro-Advisory, asserts that the efforts to isolate Russia have not succeeded.
The Kremlin emphasizes that Russia is successfully enduring the impact of sanctions. Evidence suggests that significant fractures lie hidden below the surface. At a geopolitical level, Russia is surrounded by allies, all poised to become its partners.
Who can be considered allies of Russia?
BRICS is an acronym representing Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. The coalition, commonly seen as a counterbalance to Western dominance, has grown to incorporate Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates.
Saudi Arabia has also received an invitation to participate.
The BRICS nations represent a significant portion of the world’s demographic landscape, comprising 45% of the global population. The combined value of the members’ economies exceeds $28.5 trillion (£22 trillion), which represents approximately 28% of the global economy.
Officials from Russia have revealed that an additional 30 nations are expressing interest in joining BRICS or establishing closer relationships with the group. A number of these nations are set to participate in the upcoming summit. This week in Kazan, discussions are anticipated to center around BRICS as it positions itself as the representative of the “global majority.”
What outcomes can be anticipated from the event, aside from granting Vladimir Putin a significant opportunity to assert his presence in global affairs?
In a bid to alleviate the burden of Western sanctions, the Kremlin leader is expected to seek the support of BRICS members in promoting an alternative currency to the dollar for international transactions.
Many of the challenges confronting Russia’s economy are associated with cross-border trade and payment systems. “A significant portion of that is connected to the US dollar,” states Mr. Weafer.
The US Treasury wields significant power and influence in global trade, primarily due to the dominance of the US dollar as the principal currency for transactions. Russia is primarily focused on undermining the US dollar’s supremacy. There is a push for British nations to establish a trade mechanism and cross-border settlement system that operates independently of the dollar, euro, or any G7 currencies, aiming to reduce the impact of sanctions.
However, detractors highlight the disparities among British nations. The term “likeminded” fails to characterize the present membership accurately.
In certain respects, it benefits the West that China and India consistently find themselves at odds with one another. Jim O’Neill, the former Chief Economist of Goldman Sachs, observes that if the two parties were genuinely committed, BRICS would wield significant influence.
China and India are making significant efforts to prevent escalating tensions and avoid conflict. However, the ongoing struggle to achieve genuine cooperation on economic matters remains a persistent challenge.
At the turn of the century, Mr. O’Neill conceived the acronym “BRICS” to represent four emerging economies that he argued needed to be integrated into the core of global policymaking.
The four letters evolved into a significant entity as the respective nations established their BRICS group, which later became known as Brics with the inclusion of South Africa.
Their efforts would focus on contesting the supremacy of the G7, which comprises the seven largest “advanced” economies: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, and the US.
India and China are not the only nations with their own set of differences. Tensions are rising between Egypt and Ethiopia, two of the latest additions to the BRICS group. Despite discussions of detente, Iran and Saudi Arabia have historically maintained a rivalry in the region.
Mr. O’Neill expresses skepticism about the likelihood of a consensus on significant issues, stating, “The idea that they’re all going to agree on something of great substance fundamentally is bonkers, really.”
As Russia, driven by anti-Western sentiment, discusses the establishment of a “new world order,” other BRICS nations, including India, appear eager to maintain strong political and economic ties with Western countries.
In Kazan, Vladimir Putin aims to navigate the existing differences and present a narrative of unity, demonstrating to both the Russian populace and the global community that his nation remains connected and far from isolation.
